Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 16.911019 19.414429 22.349755 26.095946 30.825134 36.704105 44.744154
2025-02-16 14.116842 17.232514 21.246877 26.968639 35.224670 47.266032 67.403289
2025-02-23 12.248252 15.536387 20.037301 26.951757 37.942620 56.115544 92.362238
2025-03-02 10.930761 14.264325 19.040372 26.821230 40.215134 64.944910 123.469639
2025-03-09 10.047609 13.433524 18.480325 27.146290 43.217622 76.329512 170.900389
2025-03-16 9.062822 12.312523 17.286170 26.140382 43.453884 82.180371 211.352010
2025-03-23 8.443612 11.663098 16.728751 26.101265 45.529349 93.319049 287.628879
2025-03-30 7.717864 10.771384 15.660190 24.931490 44.901085 97.336944 345.016619
2025-04-06 7.048681 9.910586 14.550404 23.509371 43.364056 98.175375 391.282574
2025-04-13 6.517296 9.229311 13.679988 22.426917 42.370210 100.325322 455.652535
2025-04-20 6.634919 9.607120 14.674528 25.212941 51.609589 143.533370 1156.620235
2025-04-27 6.478834 9.512378 14.810734 26.241661 56.759150 178.246895 2617.216490
2025-05-04 6.025613 8.896875 13.961386 25.055098 55.484306 184.091792 3836.915574
2025-05-11 5.855973 8.759726 14.000271 25.899155 60.747528 232.504883 19319.786057
2025-05-18 5.606274 8.461246 13.695789 25.884053 63.312853 271.277538 383250.770413
2025-05-25 5.369019 8.167085 13.369695 25.760972 65.513194 314.034508 NaN
2025-06-01 5.194832 7.973684 13.224833 26.067537 69.489649 385.704444 NaN
2025-06-08 4.918321 7.575760 12.629293 25.118555 68.247923 403.494352 NaN
2025-06-15 4.746065 7.359848 12.391313 25.081634 70.779113 477.905852 NaN
2025-06-22 4.494050 6.982018 11.787494 23.976834 68.393847 480.489545 NaN
2025-06-29 4.237526 6.584827 11.120292 22.631946 64.634629 456.105922 NaN
2025-07-06 4.023572 6.259019 10.586721 21.606942 62.093055 448.562045 NaN
2025-07-13 4.121374 6.524017 11.326290 24.242770 77.689442 897.015729 NaN